Amos Tversky

"The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a reliable guide to the truth of those beliefs."

"Everybody has two jobs. Do your job, and then shut up and listen."

"Nothing in life is as important as you think it is while you are thinking about it."

"We are overconfident in our beliefs and our abilities."

"The prospect of loss plays a larger role in human decision-making than the prospect of equivalent gain."

"People tend to assess the probability of an event by the ease with which instances come to mind."

"Validity improves with practice, but confidence does not."

"Most people are overconfident about their own knowledge."

"Even the best intuitions of the most experienced professionals can be wrong."

"We are prone to overestimate how much we understand the world."

"Humans are not intuitive statisticians."

"The illusion of understanding is particularly acute for phenomena that are complex."

"Anchoring effects are pervasive in human judgment."

"People often rely on a limited number of heuristic principles which reduce the complex tasks of assessing probabilities."

"The availability heuristic leads to systematic biases in judgment."

"We judge the frequency of events by how easily examples come to mind."

"Representativeness is a powerful heuristic, but it can lead us astray."

"The conjunction fallacy is a robust and widespread phenomenon."

"In the mind of humans, probabilities and statistics do not behave the same way as they do in nature."

"Our intuitions about probability are wrong in systematic ways."

"The most important thing about a decision is that it be made."

"The brain does not keep separate accounts for different types of events."

"Matching probabilities is a poor strategy in repeated decisions."

"People treat the possibility of loss as more serious than the possibility of gain."

"Preference reversals occur when we make real decisions versus hypothetical ones."

"The planning fallacy is a fundamental aspect of human nature."

"We systematically underestimate the time required to complete tasks."

"People are overly optimistic about their personal future."

"The illusion of control is stronger for familiar situations."

"We are inclined to see ourselves as more responsible for good outcomes than for bad ones."