Kahneman, Daniel

"We underestimate the role of chance in success stories."

"The backfire effect means that conflicting information can make people more certain of their beliefs."

"Personal stories are more persuasive than statistics, even when statistics are more accurate."

"We remember the exception, not the rule."

"The contrast effect means that the same thing seems better or worse depending on comparison."

"Good forecasting requires intellectual humility about what we don't know."

"We are pattern-completion creatures—we finish sentences, fill in blanks, and jump to conclusions."

"The human mind is a prediction machine that runs on very little information."

"Willpower is not unlimited; we deplete it through decision-making."

"We judge ourselves by our intentions but others by their actions."

"The framing of a choice influences the choice more than the objective facts."

"Confidence is a feeling, not evidence of accuracy."

"We see what we expect to see, not what is actually there."

"The world is more complex than any narrative can capture."

"Slow thinking requires effort, and we naturally avoid effort."

"An organization's culture is shaped by the biases of its leaders."

"The narrative fallacy makes us believe that complex events have simple explanations."

"We are terrible at distinguishing between correlation and causation."

"Emotional reactions happen before rational thought."

"The hindsight bias makes past events seem more predictable than they were."

"Success requires making good decisions despite uncertainty."

"We adapt quickly to new circumstances, but we adapt faster to bad circumstances than good ones."

"The status quo bias makes us prefer things to stay as they are."

"What you see depends on what you're looking for."

"Rare events are overestimated in probability because they're easier to imagine."

"The mind processes information in chunks, and the chunks determine what we understand."

"Persuasion happens when you make thinking easy."

"We are more motivated by losses than gains."

"The context in which a decision is made shapes the decision as much as the facts."

"Most of our life is run by automatic processes we're not aware of."