Tversky, Amos

"We are terrible at understanding large numbers and astronomical probabilities."

"The sunk cost fallacy keeps us trapped in failing courses of action."

"Emotions and reason are not opponents; emotion is a form of reasoning."

"Groupthink occurs not from conformity pressure alone, but from shared illusions."

"The more extreme the outcome, the more we attribute it to skill rather than luck."

"We are optimists about ourselves and pessimists about society."

"The planning fallacy reveals we are chronically overconfident about our ability to estimate time."

"Most people believe they are above average—a mathematical impossibility."

"The better we understand statistics, the more we recognize how often we ignore them."

"Choices made under uncertainty reveal our true values better than our stated beliefs."

"The mind abhors randomness; we see intentional patterns even in noise."

"Wealth increases happiness, but only up to the point where basic needs are met."

"We are more afraid of losing ten dollars than excited about gaining ten dollars."

"The gambler's fallacy persists because the mind seeks patterns in randomness."

"Skilled decision-makers are often indistinguishable from lucky amateurs in hindsight."

"We use different criteria to judge decisions depending on whether they turned out well."

"The narrative fallacy makes us construct stories to explain outcomes that were largely random."

"Correlation is everywhere; causation is rare, yet we confuse them constantly."

"Most of what we call intuition is pattern recognition from accumulated experience."

"The mind is more comfortable with specific risks than with ambiguity."

"We are remarkably poor at updating our beliefs in light of new evidence."

"The status quo bias keeps us making the same decisions even when better options exist."

"Expertise is both a blessing and a curse—deep knowledge can narrow perspective."

"The illusion of understanding is rampant; we think we grasp complex phenomena far better than we do."

"Probability is not intuitive; it must be learned and constantly relearned."

"The human mind is exquisitely tuned to detect patterns that don't exist."

"We underestimate the role of chance in our lives and the lives of others."

"Risk aversion is not irrational; it reflects how much loss hurts relative to gain."

"The mind creates coherence where none exists, making random events seem meaningful."

"Most of human behavior can be understood as attempts to manage uncertainty and risk."