People are terrible at estimating probabilities, especially ... - Richard Thaler

"People are terrible at estimating probabilities, especially for rare events or distant futures."

Richard Thaler Wisdom

Economist Psychologist American Born 1945 (age 81)

More from Richard Thaler

"Mental accounting is how people organize, evaluate, and process financial activities."

"People are not always rational. We make systematic mistakes."

"The most important thing to realize is that we are all irrational some of the time."

"Behavioral economics is the study of human choice."

"I'm not angry, I'm just disappointed."

"The best things in life are free."

"You can't have everything in life, but you can have what matters most."

"A woman's intuition is rarely wrong."